Russia Georgian and the Historic "Silk Road"

Understanding the politics of the region requires taking a look at the bigger picture. Study the maps. Most maps focus on the immediate region. Once you have gone through this quick study you will find the last map which will offer insights into what is in the Naked Underground.

Let's start here. Notice the pretty colors and can you guess where the oil is coming from?



Much of what underlies Western political activity today can be better understood by studying the economic link between Europe and Asia and anything which might clarify corridor related matters between the two regions. Understanding the term "Eurasia" is a good place to start. In order to aid in this study go to: http://www.eurasianet.org

The Central Eurasia Project aims, through its website, meetings, papers, and grants, to foster a more informed debate about the social, political and economic developments of the Caucasus and Central Asia. It is a program of the Open Society Institute-New York. The Open Society Institute-New York is a private operating and grantmaking foundation that promotes the development of open societies around the world by supporting educational, social, and legal reform, and by encouraging alternative approaches to complex and controversial issues.

The views expressed in this publication do not necessarily represent the position of the Open Society Institute and are the sole responsibility of the author or authors.

What's going on in Georgia?
In order to understand, for example, what is going on in Georgia, and what it is that Russia is truly protecting, or anyone else, for that matter, we must look beneath the surface. That is what the Naked Underground attempts to bear in mind before publishing on this collection of blogs. After all, why should we be unwitting victims. So, here is an excerpt from that site dating back to February which should give some insight into why Russia is at war with Georgia. The idea that Russia is "protecting" the Russians in the area is easily seen as a suitable pretense for a severe action to regain control of an economically strategic region, a most vital and shortest corridor between East and West. What you are about to read is the story about what is coming to be the revival of the historic "Silk Road" and will "develop the Europe-Caucasus-Asia transport corridor".

Here's a glimpse of that February article:

BUSINESS & ECONOMICS

AZERBAIJAN, GEORGIA AND TURKEY: BUILDING A TRANSPORTATION TRIUMVIRATE?
Rovshan Ismayilov 2/07/07

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First, it was energy; now, transportation. The Kars-Akhalkalaki-Tbilisi-Baku railway project, run by Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey, is strengthening a sense of regional cooperation in the South Caucasus.

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan met in Tbilisi on February 7 with Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili to sign a framework agreement on the project, which will link Turkey, Azerbaijan and Georgia via a 258-kilometer-long railway. The agreement must then be submitted to the Azerbaijani, Turkish and Georgian parliaments for ratification.

The railroad, 14 years in the making, has been touted as the shortest route for commercial traffic between Asia and Europe. Some observers have forecast that, if completed, it could become a competitor to the Trans-Siberian Railway. Construction is scheduled to begin in June 2007, with a tentative completion date by the end of 2008, Azerbaijani Transportation Minister Ziya Mammadov told the Azerbaijani independent television station ANS on January 18. A January 16 statement from the Azerbaijani foreign ministry predicted that the railroad "will create conditions for the revival of the historical Silk Road and will develop the Europe-Caucasus-Asia transport corridor," thereby advancing "the region’s integration with Europe."

In many ways, the project is a case study in regional self-reliance. The United States, an influential backer of such regional projects as the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline and the South Caucasus gas pipeline, has declined to support the rail link since it excludes Armenia. The European Union has expressed similar reluctance.

Instead, Turkey, Azerbaijan and Georgia have looked to themselves to cover the $600 million in estimated costs. "The US can issue any decisions it wants, but there will be no problems with financing the project," commented Georgian Foreign Minister Gela Bezhuashvili on January 10, the Azerbaijan’s news agency Trend reported. "There are other sources."

One of those sources is Azerbaijan. At a January 13 meeting in Tbilisi, the three sides agreed that Azerbaijan will loan Georgia $200 million for the construction of a 29-kilometer stretch of the railroad through Georgian territory and for the reconstruction of existing sections of Georgian railways that the new line will use. Georgia will pay an annual interest rate of just 1 percent on the 25-year loan, according to Economic Development Minister Giorgi Arveladze. The Georgian government has already approved the proposed terms for the loan and expects a final agreement with Azerbaijan to be signed soon, Prime Minister Zurab Noghaideli has said.

The agreement comes on the heels of a gas deal between Georgia and Azerbaijan that the government in Tbilisi hopes will allow it to replace higher-priced Russian gas with gas from Azerbaijan’s Shah Deniz field. [For details, see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Turkey also plays a key role in this assistance scheme. At a February 7 joint press conference in Tbilisi with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that Turkey would try by July 2007 to funnel 800 million cubic meters from its share of Shah Deniz gas to Georgia. Saakashvili, however, told reporters that Georgia would receive Turkey's gas "as soon as Shah Deniz is put into operation," adding that Azerbaijani gas supplies are expected to steadily increase.

The agreements underline Azerbaijan’s growing importance for Georgia. To highlight that significance, part of the embankment of the Mtkvari River in central Tbilisi was renamed during the summit to commemorate the late President Heydar Aliyev, father of the current Azerbaijani leader.

Some opposition members in Georgia have questioned this relationship.

Analysts in Baku say that the railway deal’s long-term advantages for Azerbaijan justify the cost of footing the bill for construction of Georgia’s section of the railway.

"The project has significant importance for Azerbaijan. It will be the final link for providing Azerbaijan with a transportation corridor to Europe," said Inglab Akhmadov, an economic expert and the director of the Public Finance Monitoring Center. "The oil and gas routes already exist and construction of the railroad to Europe, bypassing Armenia and Russia, will complete the process for Azerbaijan." (The Public Finance Monitoring Center is funded by the Open Society Institute. EurasiaNet.org operates under the auspices of the Open Society Institute in New York.)

The profitability of Baku’s Caspian Sea port and the Azerbaijani State Railroad will also increase, noted independent political analyst Rasim Musabekov, who argued that the project is more important for Azerbaijan than for Georgia.

"The length of the Kars-Akhalkalaki-Tbilisi-Baku railroad on Azerbaijan’s territory is much longer than on Georgian territory, so Azerbaijan’s railroad will make a greater profit on tariffs," he said. Plus, a key strategic benefit also exists: "For the first time, Azerbaijan will get direct railroad access to its most important ally, Turkey."

Although Azerbaijan’s booming energy sector has so far allowed it to play benefactor to its poorer neighbor, Georgia, Baku has kept a sharp eye on potential sources of outside financing for the project, as well. China, which has a growing interest in Central Asian energy sources, has featured among these sources. An official in Azerbaijan’s foreign ministry told EurasiaNet that Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mamedyarov tried to convince China to support the Kars-Akhalkalaki railway project during a visit to Beijing in the spring of 2005. "However, while China’s leadership stated its interest in an alternative route for railway traffic to Europe, they politely refused to finance the project," said the source, who asked not to be named.

Meanwhile, other sources of financing remain trapped in a tightly intertwined circle of conditions. While the US does not exclude the possibility of its active support for the project in the future, it insists on Armenia’s inclusion. With the Bush administration’s support, the US Congress in 2006 banned any government funding for the railway for this reason.

"We’d love to get to that point when the railroad from Turkey to Baku could transit Armenia, " commented US Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Matthew Bryza in a January 9 interview with the Azerbaijani state-run news agency AzerTag. While the US does not oppose the project, he continued, "We hope there’ll be [a] time soon when the transit scheme will embrace all of the countries." ...More

Next for some history ...

Learn about the Ancient Silk Road and it's significance today and why the rebuilding of the railway.




How is the US affected today:

Ethnic Interests Threaten U.S. Interests in the Caucus



Okay next once we have gotten this far, let's take a peek at this happy piece of geography. Once we see this map it is easier to understand why the US is playing the role with Iran and how the pieces fit together.

Yerevan to Tehran

More maps:



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